Economic growth, climate change, and agriculture sector: ARDL bounds testing approach for Bangladesh (1971-2020)

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Ebrima K Ceesay Momodou Mustapha Fanneh


Agriculture, Food security, Climate change, and food import are vital components of an economy. This article empirically explored the long-run and short-run impact of these variables on the economic development of Bangladesh by employing the ARDL model over the period from 1971 to 2020. The outcome of the F-bounds test confirmed the existence of a no long-run relationship among the variables examined, and hence, the appropriate model is ARDL. The study then analysed the short-run impact of agriculture, food security, food import and climate change on economic growth. The short-run and long-run coefficients revealed a positive and significant impact of the agriculture sectors on economic growth in Bangladesh in the short-run and long-run. Findings further showed that climate change and food security have a positive and insignificant impact on economic development. Food import has a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth in the short-run and an insignificant positive impact in the long-run+. Therefore, the study concludes that Bangladesh should invest in the agriculture sector as an engine of economic growth. Climate change, food security and food imports are essential for Bangladesh's economy.

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CEESAY, Ebrima K; FANNEH, Momodou Mustapha. Economic growth, climate change, and agriculture sector: ARDL bounds testing approach for Bangladesh (1971-2020). Economics, Management and Sustainability, [S.l.], v. 7, n. 1, p. 95-106, may 2022. ISSN 2520-6303. Available at: <>. Date accessed: 06 dec. 2022. doi:


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