Toward sustainable ROI governance in marketing: Integrating multi-touch attribution and incrementality testing for evidence-based budget decisions

Abstract

Purpose. This paper addresses the methodological misalignment between descriptive multi-touch attribution and causal incrementality testing within marketing ROI governance. It argues for an integrative framework where both approaches serve as complementary mechanisms rather than competing instruments, ensuring responsible resource allocation and sustainable corporate budgeting aligned with long-term organizational accountability. Methodology. The study adopts a conceptual-analytical design grounded in a structured synthesis of literature on multichannel advertising response, digital experimentation, and causal evaluation. To validate the practical utility of the proposed framework and bring its empirical boundaries into focus, a hypothetical simulation based on industry benchmark patterns is constructed. This scenario demonstrates how conventional rules-based attribution methods misallocate value and distort advisory ROI when specific strategic media levers are modified. Results. The simulation highlights a systematic attribution bias: last-touch and time-decay models overallocate credit to lower-funnel channels near the conversion event by approximately one-third, consistently undervaluing upper-funnel awareness and lifecycle interventions. The proposed five-phase Attribution Integration & Governance Engine (AIGEN) framework corrects these distortions by balancing path-based diagnostics with selective counterfactual validation, establishing a transparent, finance-ready bridge to contribution margins. Theoretical contribution. This research bridges the gap between descriptive and causal inference paradigms within marketing productivity literature. It operationalizes this synthesis into a transferable decision architecture that conceptualizes performance measurement not as an isolated reporting metric, but as an ongoing system of evidence-based organizational learning and sustainable business governance. Practical implications. For management consultants and corporate marketing analytics teams, the AIGEN framework provides an auditable protocol that moves beyond superficial dashboard reporting toward causally disciplined resource allocation. This shift directly improves the fiscal sustainability, transparency, and ethical compliance of digital advertising investments within modern, privacy-constrained corporate structures.

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production